When the Madness Stinks

  

A recap of today's games before we move on to tomorrow's action:

-Tennessee 76, Ohio State 73

This game was incredibly frustrating to watch. Neither team was willing to accept its limitations, and it ultimately cost Ohio State a shot at the Final Four. Where to start... 

Ohio State: Absolutely refused to drive for the middle twenty minutes of the game. They settled for bad jumpers and contested threes, which they weren't making. Unfortunately, there were spurts when they made a few, and that emboldened them to keep trying. Whenever they took the ball to the basket, they either got fouled or passed to a wide open shooter. It is by far their best offensive strategy, but you wouldn't know it based on their decision making. I have to give Tennessee some credit for this, as their defensive was consistent and smothering, but the ease with which Turner and Lighty drove by people at times only made it that much more frustrating.

Turner absolutely carried Ohio State the first ten minutes of the second half, scoring 14 in a row to keep his team in the game. He played well down the stretch, but his teammates simply weren't helping him much, and the game got away. Today, he and Lighty simply weren't enough. (Buford was the only other player to score in the second half. He had three.)

I have to blame the coach, Thad Motta, for some of this. Why is he not telling his team to attack the basket? Maybe he was and the players simply didn't listen. I can live with that. But he made another error when he pressed after Turner made the go-ahead shot. Prior to that point, the press had been effective at generating some turnovers, and that was necessary because Ohio State was losing. Once they went ahead, though, they needed to get back on defense as quickly as possible. Tennessee had been shaky in half-court offense all game, and if Ohio State could rebound, they would have the game in hand. Additionally, Turner was gassed, and he is the front of their 1-3-1 press/trap. Tennessee broke the press and got an easy go-ahead layup that proved to be the difference.

Not an indefensible choice, but a suspect one at best.

Tennessee: How many threes did they airball? 5? 10? I have no idea. Way too many. Conversely, how often did their passing in the post generate easy backdoor opportunities? Ugh. In spite of being 4 for 15 on threes, they did an exceptional job of hammering the boards and looking for the open man when Ohio State doubled. Their guards struggled with their ball-handling at times, but with the exception of the final couple minutes, Ohio State rarely capitalized.

I'm forced to eat a small plate of crow over Wayne Chism's performance. 9 for 16 and 11 boards while being the emotional leader of a team that has been through the emotional wringer this year. (I won't bother explaining it, as the announcers refused to shut up about it. Suffice it to say it involved copious amounts of stupidity.) I didn't think he was a chump or anything, but I did not think Tennessee would go very far relying on him as their number one option. I guess they showed me.

In spite of all of those nuisances, the game was generally pretty well played. Each team imposed its will on defense and found a way to generate points when they had to. Basketball is a game in which the difference is typically two or three possessions, and between a mistimed press and a poor turnover, Ohio State sealed their fate. I'm sad to see Turner and Ohio State go, but Tennessee earned it.

Mostly.

-Saint Mary's 49, Baylor 72

What a savage beat down this was. Baylor's front line was amazing. Controlling the boards, stopping drives, pushing Samhan away from the basket...they did it all. Their guards absolutely worked their Saint Mary's counterparts, moving wherever they wanted to and getting open looks whenever they desired.

To some extent, Baylor was impressive because of their competition. Had they played a legitimate 2 seed, they might not have embarrassed their opposition so thoroughly. They played the most complete game I have seen in the entire tournament, though, and they have quietly played as well as anyone for the past two weeks. They have not lost a game this year by more than seven points while playing in the best conference in the country. After Kentucky, there is no one I would rather avoid for the duration of the tournament.

One last thing: I can't forget to say goodbye to the fat guy. I can safely say I will not be missing Samhan. FINALLY a team remembers that guys who can't shoot from more than eight feet or move with the ball are easily defended by denying them deep post position. Thanks a bunch, Baylor. You're doing God's work.

-Northern Iowa 52, Michigan State 59

This is the only result that genuinely surprised me. It shouldn't have, because Tom Izzo has been to 5 Final Fours in ten years and made a living winning when no one thought he would. Michigan state out-rebounded Iowa, Summers stepped up and doubled his scoring average, and Farokhmanesh had a bad game. That's the story of the game in three bullet points.

-Purdue 57, Duke 70

What a putrid game. Ugly in every sense of the word. Bad shots, too many missed shots, too many fouls that both were and were not called. All around ugly. Add in the fact that Duke won, and my only thought is this: how much money does Duke send to the selection committee every year to ensure themselves a crappy region?

Props to Singler for playing extremely well, particularly when none of his teammates could. Props to Purdue for fighting to the end. Slops to the referees, (abhorrent) the rest of Duke, (sucked immeasurably) the selection committee, (terrible) and the general talent level of this year's tournament (low, to say the least). This game didn't even have the common decency to be exciting. I want those two hours of my life back.

(An Aside: Lest you think I'm bitter about these last two results and thus shunned them, I'll explain why they got the short end of the coverage stick: they sucked. A lot. Nothing about either game was watchable, and they reminded me that college basketball is a severely inferior product to the pro variety. Nothing more, nothing less.)


And now a look ahead to Elite Eight action:

-Butler vs. Kansas State

I'm going to be forced to count Butler out this time. Kansas State is most decidedly not Syracuse. They're healthy, their guards are unbelievable, they hammer the boards, and no one is going to keep them from putting up points one way or another. With the exception of Baylor, I don't think anyone left in the tournament plays smarter. I just don't see Butler winning.

Now, I'm forced to hedge the above statements by saying that Butler is a quality team and has been for years, that they have beaten quality opponents to get here, and that they wont be intimidated by Kansas State. All of these are true, and given the that the overarching theme of this tournament has been "When talent is down, anything can happen", I couldn't be too surprised if Butler won.

I'm just having trouble seeing how they could.

-West Virginia vs. Kentucky

Whether or not this is the best game of the tournament, it is almost assuredly going to be the best matchup. Kansas State or Baylor versus Kentucky could conceivably be better, but those teams lack the big name coach and tradition that West Virginia has. When you factor in the contrasting styles, you have all the ingredients for a classic.

West Virginia is the Yeoman's team. They don't have any name guys. Their biggest asset is killing themselves on defense and being scrappy everywhere else. None of their players has overwhelming skills in any area, yet their starters are all efficient scorers. They epitomize what we have come to think of as Big East basketball, and they do so with little ballyhoo and fanfare.

Kentucky couldn't be any more different. They are the most celebrated team in the country. They have talent and name players up and down their roster. Wall. Cousins. Bledsoe. Peterson. All of their names will be called on draft day, and early on, at that. They are the most athletic team in the country, the best offensive team in the country, and their coach is probably the most controversial. When you combine that with their extensive history as a pantheon level basketball school, they couldn't possibly be more different than their competition.

The question you have to ask when determining the outcome of this game is this: Who is Kentucky? Are they 2003 Syracuse, a young team led by a future superstar (Carmelo Anthony) that rose to the moment? Are they 2008 Memphis, who, led by Derrick Rose, got to the finals before they ultimately succumbed to their fatal flaw? (Free Throw Shooting. Coincidentally, Kentucky's fatal flaw.) Are they the new Fab Five, whose youth was so prominently on display when Webber called that foolish timeout? Or are they 2005 North Carolina, the most talented team in the tournament, and the one that will eventually cut down the nets.

My guess is somewhere between 2003 Syracuse and 2008 Memphis. Syracuse had one of the best college players ever, while Memphis was the spiritual predecessor  to this Kentucky team (in no small part because of their shared coach). Wall is somewhere between Rose and Carmelo on the College Superstar Scale, and which one he gets compared to will be determined in the next two weeks.

This game presents the perfect opportunity for Kentucky's flaws to be exploited. Kentucky has a habit of letting even the most inferior of opponents back into games, and West Virginia should require no such favors. Kentucky may excel in close-and-late situations, but you can only dodge the bull so many times before you get the horns.

So my prediction is that Kentucky will get the horns at some point in this tournament. It seems that it has been fated from the beginning. Nearly every team that most closely resembles this group lost when their most fatal flaw came back to haunt them. Why would Kentucky be any different?

If it's going to happen sometime, it might as well be to the first team that presents a real threat. So yes, I'm picking West Virginia over Kentucky. I'll also be picking Kansas State or Baylor if Kentucky plays them. You can't run from your faults forever, and eventually, Kentucky's immaturity, lack of passion to close out games, and inability to make free throws will come back to haunt them.

I'm just not sure when.

Image via  College Hoops Journal

You can email Chris with questions or comments at TheSportsKiosK@gmail.com