When the Madness gets Depressing

  

Day four of March Madness coverage. You know the drill.

-Butler 63, Kansas State 56

What a heartbreaking game. I have to give Butler a ton of credit: they are a very good team, and this tournament has been the culmination of several years of excellence. They played aggressive defense all game and consistently worked to get to the rim when their threes weren't open.

Kansas State did their best to make it a game, but they didn't have the firepower to do so. Pullen just didn't have his shot going today, and he couldn't get to the rim as much as usual. State did an admirable job of continuing to go to the rim when their shots weren't falling, but they had trouble finishing and weren't getting any calls. Their pressure got them back into the game, but once Butler made a couple shots to end the run, Kansas was simply out of gas.

I only have two major gripes with this game. One was the officiating. I thought it was very uneven, and often seemed to be favoring Butler. They were just as physical and aggressive as Kansas State, but they seemed to be able to get away with it, particularly when State drove into the lane. Butler, meanwhile, was getting calls on most contact. Regardless of whether or not it was biased, I thought it was clearly inconsistent, and the players often looked perplexed as to what was and was not acceptable. Still, Kansas State was fouling most of the times it was called, and they certainly shouldn't use the refs as an excuse for their results.

The other problem I have was with Kansas State's lack of composure down the stretch. For such a smart team, and one that had been so heady when the going got tough, I found their collapse at the end of the game perplexing. They didn't have any sense of urgency, nor did they seem to have much of a plan. The game had already gotten away from them by that point, but the combination of missed free throws, poor ball-handling, and a distinct lack of urgency cemented the loss. If you had told me yesterday that this would be the case, I would have laughed at you.

This is why you don't try to predict college basketball: they're still twenty year old kids at the end of the day. Who knows how they'll react to anything, let alone a pair of grueling games followed by facing a far more aggressive opponent than they had played previously in front of thousands of people. You just don't know.

At the very least, I don't.

-West Virginia 73, Kentucky 66

The opening few minutes of this game looked like the beginning of a rather definitive statement. Kentucky was on a mission, and West Virginia were the poor suckers that got in their way. Then a few shots didn't fall, and West Virginia hit a couple threes, and the game was suddenly close is spite of Kentucky's dominance. Then Kentucky failed to generate transition opportunities, and their outside shots weren't falling, so their offense ground to a halt. West Virginia stayed uncharacteristically hot, and they took a lead into halftime.

Coming out of the half, Kentucky didn't seem to have a much better plan. Transition, Wall penetrating, outside shots, and occasionally a Cousins post-up. West Virginia cut off the transitions for the most part, the outside shots weren't falling, Cousins only got the ball sporadically, and Wall couldn't do everything. West Virginia, meanwhile, finally managed to avoid having their inside shots blocked, and their good outside shooting forced Kentucky to respect their three point shots. This opened up better driving lanes, and suddenly West Virginia wasn't just a hot team, they were a complete team.

During all of this, the only adjustment Kentucky made was a stifling press (which was admittedly a smart and incredibly effective decision). Their offense still revolved around outside shots they weren't making and dribble drives that weren't working. They couldn't hit their free throws, so even when they did penetrate successfully, they were forced to take one point instead of two.

Kentucky did an admirable job of closing the gap at the end. Taking a lead from sixteen to four is no mean feat, and they absolutely never gave up. Unfortunately, it spoke more to their lack of urgency earlier in the game than it did their ability to step up late in the game. They never felt like the game was in jeopardy until it was beyond repair, and although their efforts were valiant, they were too little too late. Poor free throw shooting and a tendency to coast were their greatest flaws, and those were the things that ultimately ended their season.

Given that I predicted this, you would think that I would be happy (particularly as it salvaged an otherwise poor run of predictions). Unfortunately, I have to admit that I wish I was wrong. The tournament was more interesting with Kentucky alive and fighting. I never knew what they were going to do, but I knew that it was going to be incredibly entertaining. Even in defeat, I had the feeling right to the very end that maybe, just maybe, they had one more miracle comeback in them.

I liked it better when I had that to hope for.


Tomorrow's matchups:

-Tennessee vs. Michigan State

Michigan State is always a good rebounding team, and that will certainly serve them well in this game. Tennessee struggles to score at times, and beyond Chism in the post, they don't really have a go-to offensive set. If Michigan State limits Tennessee's second chances and gets another great performance from a role player, they will probably win the game.

From Tennessee's perspective, the game is as simple as hammering the boards and stopping Morgan/Summers/Green on offense. State lacks efficient scorers and creators without Lucas, and if 2 of those three don't have good offensive days, Michigan State might barely score 45.

I'm going with Michigan State because they play the same game as Tennessee, only they perfected it. Throw in the March credentials of one Tom Izzo, and I'm just tired of picking against them. Tennessee is more talented with the absence of Lucas, and they have certainly beaten very good teams this year (Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio State, to name three), but at a certain point I find it hard to believe that a team that has no studs, very few scoring options, and plays frenetically for extended stretches can make a Final Four. It just doesn't compute.

Of course, if we've learned anything these last two days, it's ignore all of my picks. Also, if you're gambling, take the points.

I wish I had more to say about this game, but I'm still mourning the loss of Ohio State, Kansas, Kentucky, and Kansas State. I just can't be content with a pair of scrappy and under-talented teams when four of the seven best teams in the country lost too early. Tennessee and Michigan State certainly earned their way to the Elite Eight, but with the exception of Tennessee's game against Ohio State I haven't felt like I have been watching good teams so much as opportunistic ones. I like watching cute and fun teams the first weekend. Now I want to see greatness.

One man's Cinderella is another man's peasant, I suppose.

-Baylor vs. Duke

One thing I need to get in print before the game starts: Zoubek fouls on every play. He isn't skilled on defense, he just cheats, and he gets away with it a lot. This was endlessly frustrating during Duke's last game, and I'm sure it will come up again tomorrow.

Baylor played the game of the tournament against Saint Mary's, while Duke sucked it up and got away with it because they played a beleaguered Purdue team. Baylor's front line is going to hammer Duke, and unless the refs are being paid off, I imagine Duke's bigs will be in foul trouble quickly.

(Of course, the refs very well may be paid off. I put nothing past Duke.)

Duke's two best non-conference opponents this season were Wisconsin and Georgetown. They lost by four and twelve, respectively. Baylor beat Xavier in their marquee non-conference game. Neither team has been tested in the tournament, so predicting their performance is close games is largely speculation. In spite of this, if you watched each of their games on Friday and ignored their reputations, there is absolutely no way you would pick Duke to win. Factor in Baylor's performance in a very tough conference and the partisan crowd (the game will be played in Houston), and Baylor just makes sense.

Plus, Duke is a bunch of whiny, pansy chokers. So there's that.

Image via Zimbio

You can email Chris with questions or comments at TheSportsKiosK@gmail.com