Second Class Citizens

   

There is an elite class of NBA player: the few who are good enough to be the best player on a championship team. This doesn't mean that they will, mind you, but merely that they could. Whether you know this by history, by anecdote, or simply by feeling, they are the most elite fraternity in the NBA. Lebron, Kobe, Wade, Paul, Howard, Nash, Nowitzki, Carmelo, and Duncan* (henceforth referred to as the “Big 9”). That’s it. Nine guys. You might be saying, “But that means only those 9 teams could conceivably win the title this year”; that’s correct. That’s how the NBA works: your best player matters more than anything else, and they are more important to their team's success than in any other sport.

*(Note: the Celtics are an exception because of their unusual situation of having 4 all-star players, and 2 years ago Garnett would have been considered top tier.)

Only 3 guys on that list have titles, but another three have been in the finals, and another 2 have been in the conference finals. Only Paul has missed such hallowed ground, and the reasons for that were discussed at length in my last article. What I am interested in now, though, are the players who have the ability to crack that list. These are their stories, in order of least to most likely to crack the above group.*

*(Note: this is not an appraisal of their ability at present. This is a projection of their future skills.)

9. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith

I’m forced to put these guys on the list simply because of how well the Hawks are playing. I strongly suspect that Joe Johnson is their most relevant player, but given Smith’s youth and incredible athletic gifts I’ll call it a tie. My suspicion is that with one of the Big 9, we would be talking about one of the best teams in the NBA, and a very real threat to the Lakers. Instead, I think that this team will go the way most teams with two second-best players go: the second round of the playoffs and out.

Long term, Joe Johnson is going to leave in free agency to team up with someone for whom he can be a sidekick (or at least he should), and Josh Smith will probably never learn how to elevate the level of play of his teammates, resigning him to a similar fate. But for the sheer “could” factor, they made the list.

8. Danny Granger

If this were a ranking of ability right now, Granger would probably be 3rd or 4th. He can shoot from anywhere, gets to the free-throw line frequently (and hits 84% of them), plays solid defense, and plays hard. His numbers suggest that he is only a few points/assists behind Wade, with a much better 3-point percentage. He’s only 26, and he’s been mostly healthy in his first 4 seasons.

This, however, is why numbers lie. It isn’t that he doesn’t do these things; quite the contrary. It’s who he does them for: a bad team. The only time Granger has seen the playoffs was as a rookie, when he was a very low option for the Pacers. He has all the earmarks of a player that gets good stats as the go-to guy on a bad team, but would be awesome as a second banana. (See: Pau Gasol)

So why did I include him on this list? He is an extremely well rounded player who works his butt off, and he has never had a very good team around him. So judging him at this point is at least slightly premature. With a deep team around him, he may very well be able to be the best player on a championship team, or at least a very good one.

But I doubt it.

7. Derrick Rose

An incredible talent, probably the best body of any point guard in the NBA. He is impossibly quick; nobody can stay in front of him when he tries to go to the rim. He is unselfish to a fault, and he put on an absolute clinic during the playoffs last year, taking a much more talented and experienced Celtics team to 7 games. He just turned 21. What’s not to like?

A few things. For one, he isn’t a very good jump shooter, and 3’s are out of the question. He doesn’t play amazing defense, although he certainly isn’t terrible. He doesn’t seem to be able to reach his teammates the way the elite must. Above all, he simply hasn’t improved from his first year to his second.

The mitigating factors, though, are omnipresent. A haphazardly put together team, the worst coach in the NBA, and a total lack of a scorer to pass to would make life difficult for any point guard. My suspicion is that his personality, more than anything else, will lead to him being an amazing second best player on a very good team. If the Bulls land a marquee free agent this summer, that will happen sooner rather than later. But don’t count on Rose being the next Isiah Thomas, if for no reason other than lacking his edge.

6. Rajon Rondo

Blasphemy to put him above his teammates, you say? Allow me to explain. The Celtics are a possible exception to the normal “Best Player” rules at the moment since they’re essentially a super version of the 2004 Pistons (strong defense, very balanced, totally unified team). 2 years ago, before Garnett had his knee problems and became an excellent complimentary player rather than a top 5-10 player, this was not the case. Pierce and Allen are having excellent seasons, but they have past their respective primes and are playing for one last title at this point.

Rondo, on the other hand, has blossomed into a terrifying force on both offense and defense. He drives past defenders whenever he pleases, passes with pinpoint accuracy, and finishes well at the rim. He can ball-hawk or play lockdown defense, and above all else, he carries himself like a leader of the team.

The questions with him are pressing, though. He can’t shoot, and much like Rose, 3’s are simply out of the question. His free throws are shockingly bad (55% this year), and he doesn’t score at a very high rate. These things lead me to believe that, like Rose, his fate is to be an excellent sidekick. Unlike Rose, though, he has that elusive Isiah-like nastiness about him that makes me believe he might will a deep team into the finals one day, much like Jason Kidd did twice. The two have very similar games, and when Rondo becomes the captain of a ship, we’ll see how he fares. Until then, he can rest easy vacillating between the 4th and 2nd option on a team that can win the title.

5. Tyreke Evans

I did not expect to be putting this guy on the list. Everything measurable said superstar, everything intangible said selfish gunner. The biggest problem was that he was cast as a point guard simply because he handles the ball well. The NBA had its day with non-facilitator point guards like Marbury, Arenas, and Nate Robinson; it doesn’t work. (At least for the purpose of winning games.) In reality, he is a hyper-athletic wing who gets to the rim at will (noticing a theme?), has very good passing ability, and has a good sense for when he needs to just take over. His performance in the Kings comeback over the bulls was very impressive, and his stats are gaudy for a rookie. He has been characterized as a smaller Lebron; the numbers back that up:

Evans: 20 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 46% shooting.

Lebron (rookie): 21 points, 6 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 42% shooting.

Shockingly similar. That said, Evans has very definite faults. He isn’t a great jump shooter, and his 3-point percentage is quite low (sound familiar?). His defense is OK, but not a strength. Above all else, he is simply young, and makes the mistakes young players make. Make no mistake about it, though: this guy is an All-Star waiting to happen, and he may very well have some titles to call his own before this decade is over.

4. Brandon Roy

A year ago I thought he was a Big 9 guy for sure. Now, not so much. It isn’t that he has done anything wrong; on the contrary, he is an extremely well rounded guard, capable of shooting, passing, finishing at the rim, rebounding, and playing defense. It’s just that he hasn’t taken his game to the level of the elite. His team has suffered copious injuries, to be sure, and the Blazers results defy reason in large part because of his contributions. Do I think that he would fare well in a game that came down to dueling elite players? Possibly. But my money is still on the Nash/Duncan/Carmelo/Kobe group. And until Roy lifts his team to the level of elite, and not first round playoff exit, I will remain skeptical.

3. Brandon Jennings

Wow. I expected nothing of this guy. I assumed he was another athletic guard who couldn’t facilitate, couldn’t shoot, and wouldn’t ever play for a winner. Instead, he is remarkably unselfish,  shoots shockingly well, and seems to be a flat-out winner. He is a bit slight, and his overall field goal percentage is low, but he is also 20 and the best player on a team that is over-achieving like crazy. Barring injury and possibly defense, I can’t see any good reason this guy won’t crack the top 10 within 3 years. He has all the tools to be the best player on a title team.

The only reason I have any doubt at all is because of the names he would be following as a guard leading a title team: Magic, Kobe, Isiah, Jordan. That’s it for the last 30 years, and that is awfully good company. Of course, the same argument goes for every other guard on this list, and he’s as good as any of them. Maybe he’s Batman, maybe Robin; more likely he’s a very close second to a better player on a title team. Plenty of teams would kill for that guy, though, and being a close two has worked out fine for plenty of guys. (See: Kobe, 00-02)

2. Deron Williams

It’s possible that he is too high on this list. Guys below him have more upside and athleticism, and he is probably about as good now as he will ever be. That said, he is 25, he has only had 1 minor injury (missing 14 games last season), he averages 20 points and 10 assists, he can post up almost anyone that guards him, and he plays strong man defense. His team has made the playoffs each of the last three years despite their second best player, Boozer, being hurt/a distraction, and Williams has played brilliantly every time. He has never made an All-Star team, which is a crime that will be rectified this year.

The problem? Nothing specific. He just might not be that good. Plenty of very excellent players aren’t in the top tier. Less than half of the All-Stars are members of the group. Being the best player on a title team means carrying your team for long stretches, lifting your teammates’ play, and eventually dueling with the best players in the league and winning. I don’t know if he can get there. But I know it’s a damn shame people don’t realize he might.

1. Kevin Durant

I watched the Thunder game against the Mavericks a week ago. It was closer than the 86-100 score indicates, as it was a 5 point game with 3 minutes to play. Durant struggled with his shot, going 4-18. His team played like you would expect a group of talented young guys to play, making silly turnovers and taking some bad shots. Two things stood out about the Thunder. First, Durant, as well as his teammates, has made tremendous strides in his defense. A year ago, such poor shooting from Durant would have meant a certain blowout. This year, they stayed in the game far longer than they deserved to simply because of how hard they worked. It is hurting his offense at times, but only slightly, and at a tremendous benefit to the team’s success.

The second was the sort of thing you see out of true winners. Durant and his teammates killed themselves all game for each other. When a guy hit a big shot, the entire bench erupted in genuine excitement. No matter how much the Thunder were losing by, they scrapped for every inch. They weren’t going to give that game up without a fight, and they weren’t going to let their teammates down by giving a shoddy effort. That stems from their best player and his infectious energy, as well as his desire to do whatever it takes to improve himself and his team.

His numbers speak for themselves: you don’t see too many 6’9” small forwards who score 28 points a game on only 20 shots (the few who exist reside almost exclusively in the Big 9). He can shoot the 3, and he’s just starting to get blocks and steals. Once he cuts down on his turnovers and learns how to pace himself correctly, he will absolutely crack the top tier. He may be there already, but guys who have never played in the playoffs have to prove it.

I can’t wait to watch him get there.

You can email Chris with questions or comments at TheSportsKiosK@gmail.com